Money creation and economic activity

Summary In the Netherlands not much attention is paid to money supply figures as an indicator of actual monetary conditions. This can be partly explained by the publication lag and the continuous revisions of seasonally adjusted data. However, the information that can be derived from money supply figures is limited because of temporary disturbances originating from the foreign exchange market. In this paper a correction method for these temporary disturbances is proposed. Money supply figures show a much closer link to real economic activity when corrected in this way.A different version of this essay with less emphasis on Holland but more information about other West-European countries has been published as chapter II Watching the money supply in: Eduard J. Bomhoff,Monetary Uncertainty, Amsterdam and New York, 1983. We gratefully acknowledge the able research assistance of Isolde B. Woittiez and Geert Rouwenhorst; Kempen and Co. kindly provided the two figures.     

Shredded Reputation: The Cost of Audit Failure

In this article we investigate the impact of the Enron audit failure on auditor reputation. Specifically, we examine Arthur Andersen's clients' stock market impact surrounding various dates on which Andersen's audit procedures and independence were under severe scrutiny. On the three days following Andersen's admission that a significant number of documents had been shredded, we find that Andersen's other clients experienced a statistically negative market reaction, suggesting that investors downgraded the quality of the audits performed by Andersen. We also find that audits performed by Andersen's Houston office suffered a more severe decline in abnormal returns on this date. We are not able to show that Andersen's independence was questioned by the amount of non–audit fees charged to its clients.     

Forbearance: An empirical analysis

Several recent articles have analyzed conditions under which allowing capital-deficient banks to continue to operate may be optimal policy. This article examines the performance of banks admitted into the FDIC's Capital Forbearance Program between 1986 and 1989 and finds that, for the majority of these banks, there was no substantial improvement in their capital ratios. We use a logit regression analysis to attempt to identify those banks whose financial condition improved with forbearance and find that banks which did improve are not clearly identifiable from pre-forbearance financial data. Instead, the banks which improved did so due to infusions of new capital, extraordinary income, and improvements in the local economies, factors which are not easily identifiable ex ante by regulators. The conclusion is that, while some grants of forbearance may result in large saving to the FDIC, in the majority of cases granting forbearance to troubled banks is unlikely to reduce the expected loss to the deposit insurer.University of HoustonUniversity of HoustonCooperative Bank of Taiwan, Taipei, Taiwan     

Bounds for Functions of Dependent Risks

The problem of finding the best-possible lower bound on the distribution of a non-decreasing function of n dependent risks is solved when n=2 and a lower bound on the copula of the portfolio is provided. The problem gets much more complicated in arbitrary dimensions. When no information on the structure of dependence of the random vector is available, we provide a bound on the distribution function of the sum of risks which we prove to be better than the one generally used in the literature.     

The Value of Chinese Online game industry

The online games didn＇t enter China for a long time, but its development speed surprised a lot of people. The data in the IDC＇s report shows that the market size of online game will reach 8.34 million RMB in 2006. Alone with the increase of market competition and the growth of original creation, the Chinese online game industry will suffer an intensive shock. At present, the online game operation is facing the problem of product life circle＇s reduction and revenue＇s drop. To solve these problems, online game companies has to find out the new game＇s increasing point of profit.     

Telecommunications policy and individuals with disabilities: Issues of accessibility and social inclusion in the policy and research agenda

Information and communications technologies have become an integral part of life in an information society, affecting employment, education and many other daily activities. For individuals with disabilities, equal access to telecommunications remains a concern, as many technologies that are developed do not allow for equal access. Law and policy have made significant progress in some nations, but sizeable barriers remain to the social inclusion of individuals with disabilities in telecommunications technologies and services. This paper examines the importance of equal access to telecommunications for individuals with disabilities in both the formulation and the implementation of policy. Analyzing issues of policy and implementation, this paper discusses policy questions and potential areas of research to better understand the relationship of telecommunications policy to access for persons with disabilities.     

Networks and innovation: sustainable technologies in Scottish social housing

The process of innovation often involves the participation of several firms and organisations in a network. This paper improves our understanding of the role of inter-organisational relations in such networks. It assesses how sustainable technologies in the Scottish social housing sector are introduced and diffused. Drawing on detailed interviews, the paper shows that despite policy initiatives by the National Housing Agency to encourage sustainable technologies and processes, a number of factors related to the organisational structure of the construction industry militate against the achievement of this objective. The different aims of the parties involved in the construction chain may not be easily reconciled and traditional approaches to construction may reinforce these differences, hindering efforts to introduce innovation.     

The challenge of the future and the institutionalization of interdisciplinarity: notes on Herman Kahn’s legacy

This article is an attempt to explore Herman Kahn’s foundational contribution to the development of what he called “broad studies”, a combination of futures research and public policy analysis. In Kahn’s view, decision making and policy processes pose two crucial problems that the scholarly research is rarely forced to face: (1) the need to have and operate with a broad, multifaceted vision of phenomena and (2) the issue of coping imaginatively and realistically with future circumstances and conditions that can only vaguely be distinguished in the present. Implied in these two is the need to develop new methods and approaches fitted to the charges imposed by them. The paper discusses Kahn’s work as an integrated solution to these problems: The definition and advocacy of broad and future-oriented studies, his concept on how these studies should be institutionalized in interdisciplinary organizational systems, and the crucial position scenarios and propaedeutic and heuristic methodologies have in this context. A special attention is given to two methodological approaches he developed to cope with these challenges: Scenario Building and the Method of Classes of Variables.When twenty years ago, on July 7, 1983, Herman Kahn died suddenly at age 61, both friends and intellectual adversaries recognized that “the world lost one of its most creative and best minds” [1] and [2]. By that time Herman Kahn was one of the preeminent and best known Futures Studies scholars, a founding father of the field, with extensive and vital contributions in Strategic Studies, an area where he was also considered a founding figure and a leader [3] and [4]. His work was followed all over the world and the directions he traced in the public debate on very sensitive issues of crucial public concern have continued to be unaltered today, twenty years after his unexpected and premature death. Yet in spite of the incessant influence of his arguments and ideas, today his intellectual legacy is still to be accounted for and the breath and depth of his contributions are still to be reviewed and analyzed in a systematic way. This paper is an attempt to explore only one dimensions of this legacy: Kahn’s foundational contribution to the development of what he liked to call “broad studies”, a combination of futures research and public policy analysis.The two decades that have passed since his death allow us today to approach his work undisturbed by the “sound and fury” of the many public debates and controversies he participated in and to focus on some of the deepest and most enduring dimensions of his intellectual contributions. However while doing that, we should keep in mind that for Kahn the public policy process shaping the future and the public debate associated to it were always the focal points and the ultimate ends of his efforts. Indeed, probably the best approach to Kahn’s work is to see it in the light of his continuous concern for the practical relevance of the social research. For him the research process was always action-oriented and its ultimate test was its relevance for policy and social action. As a result, the most promising starting point for any overview of Kahn’s thought and work should be a set of crucial conclusions he reached about the policy making process and decision makers early in his career.     

Globalisation and the environment: the long-term effects of technology on the international division of labour and energy demand

This paper examines the effect of the structural changes arising from the globalisation of production and innovation and from technological changes on the environment. Drawing on theories of international production from international business and innovation, we assess the impact of long-term technological change and changes in international production on the international division of labour and energy demand. We select two industrial sectors with different technological characteristics (the textile, clothing and footwear sector and the chemical sector). We examine the effects of the globalisation of production and of technological change on these two sectors on the level of industrial production and resource intensity in different regions and countries over the last 30 years. We speculate on the impact of globalisation of production and innovation in future pervasive technologies—information technology, biotechnology and nano-technology. The implications of these developments on industrial greenhouse gases emissions are assessed.